Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro tie at 50 percent in final Brazil runoff poll

A survey released on Thursday by the Datafolha institute places Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro at an even 50 percent in the presidential runoff. This result erases a four-point lead that Bolsonaro held in polls published two weeks prior. The data suggests the race has tightened as voters head to the polls on Sunday.

The two candidates met for their final televised debate on Friday in Rio de Janeiro, broadcast on TV Globo. The exchange focused heavily on policy, with both men trading questions about the economy, infrastructure, and regional development. The atmosphere was more diplomatic than their first meeting on Sunday, though personal attacks still occurred.

Lula challenged his opponent's plan to cut public spending, comparing the approach to that of Argentina's libertarian President Javier Milei. Bolsonaro argued that his job would be similar because Lula is leaving the country bankrupt. The senator accused the incumbent of allowing organized crime to grow and failing to control the high cost of living. Lula responded by calling Bolsonaro a vigilante, a reference to alleged ties between the senator and paramilitary groups in Rio.

The debate featured several tense moments. Bolsonaro used the nickname Nine Fingers for Lula, a term referring to an accident the 80-year-old president suffered while working as a metalworker. Lula demanded an apology, which Bolsonaro offered. The two also clashed over the death of a five-year-old in a shootout involving a police officer whose lawyer was Bolsonaro. The senator stated he does not believe his client was guilty.

Bolsonaro finished first in the opening round of voting on October 4, capturing 47 percent of the vote compared to Lula's 45 percent. The current tie in the Datafolha poll indicates that the earlier advantage has disappeared. Both candidates are scheduled to join supporters on the streets of Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo for a final campaign push before the Sunday vote.