Eisenkot Weighs 58-Seat Minority Cabinet Path

The arithmetic facing Israel's opposition bloc is narrow: Gadi Eisenkot has proposed assembling a government with 58 or 59 seats, short of the 61 needed for a majority, if change-seeking parties reach that threshold. A confidence vote could pass with abstentions rather than 61 affirmative votes, allowing a cabinet to be sworn in without permanent backing from a majority of lawmakers, then work later to expand its parliamentary base.

Eisenkot seeks to lead the bloc and serve as its candidate to form the next government. He has ruled out serving under Benjamin Netanyahu, including under a rotation arrangement, and has raised the minority government option as a way forward. He has not closed the door on outside support from Ra'am, but no agreed formula for the plan exists among the parties.

Two prominent opposition figures reject the approach. Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, who head the Beyachad list, demand a Zionist government and refuse to rely on Arab party votes or abstentions. Avigdor Liberman rules out a minority government even on a transitional basis and insists on a Zionist majority from the start. He says another election would be preferable to a government that fails his conditions, and he has floated bringing Likud lawmakers into a government without Netanyahu while saying some would be willing. He has named no such lawmakers, and no public talks with Likud members are under way.

A meeting between Eisenkot and Liberman this week ended with a joint call to increase voter turnout but did not resolve their disagreement over governing format. Their rivalry over who leads also persists: Eisenkot wants to head the largest party, while Bennett points to his prior service as prime minister. Democrats chairman Yair Golan has not ruled out cooperation with Ra'am.

Beyond the confidence vote question, the bloc is moving on parliamentary procedure. Parties are reportedly near agreement on replacing Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana before any coalition deal, a step intended to give Netanyahu's opponents control of the legislative agenda even if he remains caretaker prime minister. The speaker is chosen by public vote early in a new Knesset's term, and Arab party lawmakers could supply votes for a candidate. Names floated include Chili Tropper, Matan Kahana and Elazar Stern from Eisenkot's list; Meirav Ben-Ari and Eitan Ginzburg from the Bennett-Lapid list; Efrat Rayten of the Democrats; and Oded Forer of Yisrael Beytenu. No consensus candidate has emerged. Liberman estimated this week that as many as one-third of outgoing coalition lawmakers might vote against Ohana, though they would have to do so openly.

Most polls place the anti-Netanyahu camp ahead of the outgoing coalition bloc, but the Zionist parties fall short of 61 seats under their current agreements, and Netanyahu's allies also lack a majority in many surveys. Some polls do give the right-wing bloc enough seats. The electoral threshold could shift seat distribution, and a small margin of votes may decide whether Israel forms a government or faces another election.

The bloc has also set out a legislative agenda: a state commission of inquiry into October 7, changes to conscription law, limits on a prime minister's tenure, and repeal of some judicial changes enacted by the outgoing government. Liberman additionally seeks to bar people facing criminal charges from serving as prime minister. No binding agreement exists on details or sequence, and party teams have begun coordinating. Some bloc members do not back every judicial change, a new speaker would not automatically deliver a legislative majority, and laws aimed at Netanyahu could face constitutional challenges. The Bennett-Lapid government, which collapsed before completing promised laws, remains a reference point. Elections take place after October 24, 2026.