Israel Votes Tuesday in Race That Could End Netanyahu's 19-Year Grip

Israelis are casting ballots on Tuesday in a Knesset election that has coalesced less around traditional left-right divides and more around a binary choice regarding Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The race features a crowded field of 120 seats, with current polling indicating the two major camps are nearly evenly matched. Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for 19 of the past 30 years, faces a direct challenge from Gadi Eisenkot, the former IDF chief of staff who entered politics only four years ago. Eisenkot’s Yashar party promotes a direct style and proposes US-style term limits for the prime minister, arguing that power corrupts.

The opposition coalition includes former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, both of whom previously aligned with Netanyahu before splitting. On the far right, Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party is campaigning on the premise that Netanyahu drifts too far left. In Bet Shemesh, party leader Yishai Fleisher urged voters to support policies such as expanded West Bank settlements and a ministry dedicated to the voluntary departure of Palestinians.

Netanyahu’s campaign has framed the vote as a choice between the right and Palestine, linking opposition leaders with parties representing Palestinian citizens who comprise about 20% of the population. The central question for the anti-Netanyahu bloc is whether it can secure a majority without relying heavily on Arab parties, a coalition structure that pro-Netanyahu media have worked to portray as unstable.

The election takes place against a backdrop of significant political and military strain. The 7 October 2023 attacks occurred under Netanyahu’s tenure, and the subsequent war in Gaza resulted in more than 70,000 Palestinian deaths, a figure Israel says included a third of Hamas combatants. Despite the conflict, Hamas was not eradicated, and Iran’s nuclear program remains a threat. Netanyahu also continues to face a corruption trial and scrutiny over his judicial overhaul efforts.

While Netanyahu’s loyal base has remained intact despite questions about his handling of the October attacks, opposition hopes are boosted by an influx of secular expatriates returning to vote. This demographic is not fully captured by standard polls and could decide the race if the margin of victory is a single seat. The campaign concluded with a state ceremony for Yitzhak Rabin’s 1995 assassination, an event Netanyahu skipped, while young Israelis at a Negev festival sang a peace song associated with Rabin.