Bolsonaro Holds 1.3 Point Lead Over Lula in Final Brazil Poll

Flavio Bolsonaro leads Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva by 1.3 percentage points in the final poll released before Sunday's presidential runoff in Brazil. The CNT/MDA survey, published on Saturday, places Bolsonaro at 46.3 percent and Lula at 45 percent. The margin of error for the study is 2.2 percentage points.

This result follows a week of shifting numbers. The same polling organization reported a gap of 46.8 percent to 45.9 percent in favor of Bolsonaro seven days prior. The race remains within the statistical margin of error, making the vote outcome uncertain until ballots are counted.

Lula, the 80-year-old incumbent, spent the final day of campaigning at Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. Wearing a red hat and waving a Brazilian flag from a campaign truck, he addressed hundreds of supporters. He contrasted himself with his rival by saying the people must choose between someone who kisses the national flag or someone who kisses the American flag. Lula is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term in office.

Bolsonaro, a senator and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, gathered supporters in Minas Gerais. Hundreds of motorcyclists wearing yellow national football shirts attended the rally. Ebert Dorigo, one of the riders, told the news agency AFP that the Workers' Party had encouraged dependence on government welfare. He argued that Brazil needs a change in direction and stated, 'The values we uphold are nation and family.'

The campaign has focused on economic policy, crime, and the country's political future. Bolsonaro has pledged to add hundreds of thousands of prison places and cut government spending. His father, who served as president from 2019 to 2022, is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup after losing the 2022 election. The two candidates held a calmer debate on Friday, though they continued to trade accusations regarding Brazil's economic difficulties.

Voters described the choice as difficult. Gabriela Ribeiro Viana, an event organizer, told AFP that she is stuck choosing between the worst, the horrible, and the lesser evil. The runoff will determine whether Brazil keeps its current left-wing leader or shifts further right, a trend seen in other parts of the region.