Brazil Runoff: Lula Targets Historic Upset as Millions Vote Sunday

The 2026 Brazilian presidential election enters its final stages with the two leading candidates statistically even. On Saturday, tens of thousands of supporters gathered on Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro to rally behind President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the 24 hours before the vote.

Approximately 159 million Brazilians are eligible to cast ballots on Sunday. Lula trails Flávio Bolsonaro in the first-round results from 4 October, where Bolsonaro secured 47% of the vote compared to Lula's 45%. A victory for Lula would mark the first time since the 1980s that a candidate who lost the initial round wins the runoff.

Crowds dressed in red filled the 2.5-mile stretch of beach, where activists displayed a banner reading "WE ARE GOING TO TURN THIS AROUND!" Josias Silva, a 61-year-old truck driver, carried a sign declaring that tomorrow would be a new day. He stated that the large street protests indicated "the people have woken up" and predicted Lula would receive more than 60% of the vote, a figure far higher than current polling suggests.

Analysts currently view Bolsonaro as the slight favorite. He positions himself as a tough leader on violent crime, following his father Jair Bolsonaro, who served as president from 2019 to 2022. Lula has recently gained ground in the polls amid scandals involving his opponent. Last week, Piauí magazine reported that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists during the 2020 pandemic.

The election carries high stakes for many voters due to Jair Bolsonaro's current 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup. Some democrats fear he may be released or return to government if his son wins. Press reports indicate that several of Jair Bolsonaro's fellow plotters could receive senior military or police appointments. Restaurateur Marta Moraes, 59, described her opposition as a rejection of "Bolsonarismo," noting she lost four relatives due to pandemic neglect.

Supporters of both sides mobilized in other cities as well. In Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais, thousands gathered wearing yellow jerseys and waving Brazilian and US flags. The state holds the country's second-largest electorate, and no candidate has won the presidency without carrying it. Bolsonaro led in Minas Gerais by just under 5% in the first round. Antonio Carlos Costa Jr, a 59-year-old shooting club owner, argued that Bolsonaro's gun laws allowed citizens to defend themselves, a view challenged by experts who note that loosened regulations diverted firearms to criminal gangs.

Lula's campaign relies on a digital network known as "Lula's Army," a WhatsApp group with 10 million members formed after the first round. Isabella Gaze, a 64-year-old retired teacher, called the election anything but normal. Meanwhile, Erika Cavalcante, a 43-year-old architect, carried a sign reading "Don't let the mobsters win," reflecting doubts among Lula's base about Bolsonaro's ties to Rio de Janeiro militias.