Brazil votes for Lula, halting regional pivot toward Israel

Brazilians have chosen Luiz Inácio da Silva, known as Lula, as their president for a third term. The left-wing leader of the Workers Party defeated center-right Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, securing 51.79 percent of valid votes against Bolsonaro's 48.21 percent. This result stops a recent regional movement that favored stronger diplomatic bonds with Israel.

Bolsonaro, a member of the Liberal Party, had campaigned on a platform of close partnership with Israel. He cultivated a direct line to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and pledged specific diplomatic upgrades if elected. Lula, by contrast, has positioned himself as a critic of Israel's military operations in Gaza. Bolsonaro stated he did not accept the election results, though the mechanism for challenging the count remains unclear.

The election outcome interrupts a specific diplomatic trajectory. On June 28, 2026, Bolsonaro met with Jewish leaders in Buenos Aires and outlined his plans for the next government. He promised that in 2027, Brazil would appoint an ambassador to Israel and relocate its embassy to Jerusalem. He also praised the 120,000 Jews in Brazil, describing them as among the brightest figures in the country's medicine, industry, science, culture, and business sectors.

Tensions between Lula's administration and Israel peaked in early 2024. In January of that year, Brazil endorsed South Africa's decision to bring a genocide case against Israel to the International Court of Justice. In February, Lula compared the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza to the Holocaust. This remark triggered a diplomatic crisis. The Brazilian Jewish umbrella organization CONIB condemned the comparison as a distortion that offended Holocaust victims and their descendants. The Holocaust Museum of Buenos Aires also criticized the remarks.

Lula's victory complicates the relationship between Israel and its neighbors in Latin America. Since 2023, several countries in the region have moved closer to Israel. Argentine President Javier Milei made support for Israel central to his foreign policy after his 2023 election. Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz Pereira restored diplomatic relations with Israel in 2025 after his predecessor severed them. Honduran President Nasry Asfura, also elected in 2025, formally recognized Israel's new ambassador. Chilean President José Antonio Kast is rebuilding ties that his predecessor had diminished. Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella, elected in May, restored diplomatic ties, sent his foreign minister to inaugurate an embassy in Jerusalem, and withdrew from the ICJ genocide case.

The contrast in leadership was visible during the campaign. After Bolsonaro led Lula in the first round on October 4, Netanyahu posted a message on X supporting the senator. He congratulated Bolsonaro and expressed hope for restoring the friendship between the two nations. Lula's return to power now places a critic of Israel's Gaza campaign back in the presidency of South America's largest country.