House Control Likely Shifts To Democrats

Voters in the final week of the 2026 midterm election are seeing heavy advertising in 70 House districts. Both parties are spending at least six figures in these races. This spending suggests the battle is no longer about whether Democrats take control of the House, but by how much.

The current balance of power in the House is a 218-214 advantage for Republicans. That margin is narrow. According to the Cook Political Report, Democrats are now favored in 220 seats. The report lists 17 seats as toss-ups. Another 30 seats lean toward Republicans but are considered potentially competitive.

A recent NPR analysis of ad spending data reveals a wide range of competitive races. In toss-up districts in Michigan, North Carolina, New York, and Florida, parties are spending more than $10 million each. Deep red districts in Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Arkansas have seen seven-figure ad buys. Resources are also being directed to districts where Republican redistricting efforts might backfire.

The shift is visible in districts that voted for different parties in the 2024 presidential election. Ten such districts have moved toward Democrats. This includes seats held by Democratic Representatives Adam Gray of California's 13th District, Nellie Pou of New Jersey's 9th District, and Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez of Washington's 3rd District. It also includes the seat of retiring Republican Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska's 2nd District. Republicans have cut ad reservations in all four of these districts in recent weeks, according to AdImpact data.

Nationally, Democrats hold a 10-point lead among registered voters on the generic congressional ballot. They lead by 8 points among likely voters, according to an NPR, PBS News, and Marist poll. Cost of living remains the top issue for voters. Rising gas prices, tariffs, and the war in Iran are cited as economic drivers. A record number of congressional retirement announcements has also fueled anti-incumbency sentiment in primary elections.

Redistricting has complicated the map. A Supreme Court decision weakened parts of the Voting Rights Act, allowing Republicans to draw lines that add conservative voters to districts held by Democrats. This affects districts currently held by Marcy Kaptur of Ohio's 9th District, Don Davis of North Carolina's 1st District, Shomari Figures of Alabama's 2nd District, and Darren Soto of Florida's 9th District. Democrats made similar moves in California to help Republican Representatives James Gallagher, David Valadao, Ken Calvert, Darrell Issa, and independent Kevin Kiley. Only Figures and Soto are in districts currently rated as favoring Republicans.

Michigan's 7th District and North Carolina's 1st District are the most expensive races, with over $12 million in planned spending each. Florida's 14th, 22nd, and 25th Districts, New York's 17th District, and Iowa's 2nd and 3rd Districts also draw heavy investment. Parties are spending in seats redrawn to minimize Democratic voting power, such as Alabama's 2nd and Tennessee's 9th Districts. They are also spending in districts where voters backed Donald Trump by more than 10 points in 2024, including Kentucky's 6th and Arkansas' 2nd Districts.

The 70 races with six-figure spending from both parties voted for Trump by an average of 9 points in 2024. Sixty districts are priority targets for both the Democratic and Republican House campaign arms. This reflects the impact of the Trump administration's unpopularity over the past year. Not every race will be close. Many districts identified by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee as in play gave Trump close to 60% of the vote in 2024 and have seen little ad spending from either party.