Lebanese Shi'ites Overwhelmingly Back State Control of Hezbollah Arms

Sixty-six point four percent of Lebanese Shi'ites now support transferring Hezbollah's weapons to the state, according to a survey released in mid-October. The poll, conducted in September by Statistics Lebanon, interviewed 800 members of the community that has historically served as the group's primary base of support. The results were reported by Israel's public broadcaster KAN and the Lebanese website Kataeb.org.

Respondents expressed strong confidence in national institutions over partisan militias. Seventy-eight point five percent said they trusted the Lebanese Armed Forces, and 51.1 percent identified the army as the best institution to guarantee long-term security. By comparison, only 16.5 percent selected Hezbollah for that role. Furthermore, 71.1 percent indicated that decisions regarding war and peace should rest exclusively with the Lebanese state, while just 5.9 percent believed Hezbollah's leadership should hold a larger role in shaping the country's future.

The survey also revealed growing skepticism about the group's performance in the recent conflict. Sixty-seven point four percent of participants stated that Hezbollah had either failed to meet its goals in the war with Israel or achieved only some of them. Additionally, 42.1 percent voiced disappointment, anger, or concern regarding the group's leadership and the consequences of the conflict. Despite this criticism, 59.5 percent of respondents still expressed some level of trust in the organization, with 37.1 percent reporting a great deal of trust.

Earlier data presented a contrasting picture. In a June analysis for Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni cited a May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International. That poll found that 87.5 percent of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah, with only 7.9 percent supporting the transfer of weapons to the state. Mizrahi and Levanoni noted that the group's influence relies on its social and economic networks, as well as the historical marginalization of its supporters. They argued that weakening Hezbollah would require a stronger army and financial support from Western and Gulf states to allow the government to replace the services the group provides.

Local conditions in southern Lebanon reflect ongoing tensions. In the city of Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of Al-Qard Al-Hassan, a financial institution linked to Hezbollah, fearing it could become a target in an Israeli strike. Such branches have been struck in previous conflicts. In response to recent destruction, Hezbollah announced aid packages of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 elsewhere.

The group has faced severe challenges since the killing of leader Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024 and a new war that began in March 2026. That conflict caused heavy destruction in villages in southern Lebanon. KAN's Roi Kais noted that Hezbollah's strength is sustained by its status and support networks within the sect, provided no other entity fills the void left by its weakened position.