Votel: More Bombing Delays Threat, Not War

Retired Army General Joseph Votel says a new wave of U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran will weaken Tehran's military capacity but will not end the conflict. Votel, who led U.S. Central Command from 2016 to 2019, spoke with NPR's Leila Fadel about the goals of a potential post-election bombing campaign. He noted that many likely targets have already been hit and that Iran has proven it can rebuild them.

Votel believes strikes can buy time and punish the Iranian government, but they have not changed Tehran's calculations regarding the war's direction. He observes that the Iranian government has become more hard-line and more willing to launch bold counterattacks. In response, Votel argues that the first requirement is a very clear objective. Washington must define what the end state looks like and how it will declare the war finished.

In his view, the end state comes down to the enrichment issue and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Once that goal is set, Votel contends that military, economic, diplomatic, and information pressure should all aim at achieving it. He emphasizes that military force is only one piece of the puzzle and that other elements of national power are necessary.

Votel points to the financial front as the area with the most visible progress. He states that the blockade and various sanctions are adding pressure, citing reporting that Iran's so-called ghost fleet has run out of oil. While this approach takes time, he notes there is definite movement in that direction.

The general acknowledges that U.S. aims have been hard to read. He says much of the strategy centers on reopening the Strait of Hormuz so that oil and other commerce can move more freely. This would help bring down gas and diesel prices in the United States. The second concern is Iran's nuclear program. Votel adds that Iran uses proxies to create regional instability, including a link to the Houthis across the Arabian Peninsula, but he describes Hormuz and enrichment as the principal worries.

Votel says bringing Iran to the negotiating table requires a clear statement of objectives, a coordinated use of military, economic, and diplomatic tools, and patience. He notes that American offensive power in the region is substantial and that the ability to strike is not in question. However, he identifies missile defense as a potential constraint. While offensive capability is where it needs to be, he says defense may face a bit of a constraint in protecting U.S. forces and regional partners.

Votel currently chairs the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. He spoke during an interview conducted by NPR. The discussion followed reports of potential new strikes after the recent election.