Ukrainian Drones Ground Moscow Airports for Up to Nine Hours Daily

Ukrainian drone strikes have grounded flights at four major Moscow airports almost every day this month. The disruptions have intensified in October, with Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky, and Vnukovo halting operations for extended periods. On certain days, the closures lasted as long as nine hours, according to the investigative outlet Agentstvo.

These closures follow a strategy outlined by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in early September. He stated that Ukraine aims to cut off airspace around Moscow and other Russian destinations. Zelenskyy addressed airlines and travelers directly, declaring that Russian airspace would become completely unsafe. Ukraine sent a similar warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization the following day.

The operational halt stems from a specific safety procedure used by Rosaviatsiya, Russia's aviation authority. Known as the 'carpet' protocol, this rule closes airspace immediately if an aircraft violates Russian borders, weapons are employed, or unidentified objects appear in the sky. Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of Friendly Avia Support, noted that every drone presents a military threat under these rules. He compared the disruption to the Houthi attacks on Saudi airspace, arguing that Ukraine's military capabilities far exceed those of the Yemeni group.

Jan Matvejev, a military analyst, observed that Ukraine can severely disrupt traffic without fully closing Russian airspace. He explained that simple drones without warheads or long range are sufficient to trigger the protocol. Ukraine's industrial capacity allows it to produce hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones daily. Simon Shuster wrote in The Atlantic that these efforts are just getting started, citing well-informed sources.

Matvejev argued that Russian air defenses have not proven fully effective against these drones. He stated that if it were possible to shoot them down easily, Russian forces would have done so by now. He added that Russia would have deployed more air-defense troops if the units were available. Both experts warned that the current protocol poses risks to civilian flights.

Laneckij warned that Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the carpet protocol, increasing the danger of deadly incidents. He referenced the 2024 Christmas day crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight, which killed 38 people after being hit by a Russian air-defense missile. Matvejev said little has changed in the protocol since that event. He noted that while shooting down low-flying drones with machine guns poses low risk to aircraft, missiles present a greater danger due to potential manufacturing defects.

Matvejev added that drones do not need explosives to cause harm, as a collision with an airplane can be serious. He estimated that a drone flown from Ukraine to Moscow must weigh dozens of kilograms. The impact extends beyond Moscow, as Ukrainian forces attacked Pskov airport in 2023 and drone debris fell on Sochi airport earlier this month. Russia has also struck Ukrainian airports, including Kyiv and Boryspil in September.

Laneckij said that whether foreign airlines continue flying to Russia depends on the military threat, demand, and insurance costs. If insurers rate the risk as very high, they may sharply raise premiums, which would send ticket prices soaring. He noted that competition in Russia's aviation market has already shrunk as many airlines have gone out of business. This has pushed up demand for seats on the remaining foreign carriers, making the cost of insurance a deciding factor for their presence.