Rio Grande Valley Voters Turn on Trump Ahead of Midterms

Donald Trump’s 2024 victory in Texas rested on a historic 55% share of Hispanic votes, a record for a Republican presidential candidate. That support is now eroding. New polling taken since late summer shows a majority of Hispanic voters in the state disapprove of the president and favor Democrats by a wide margin. The shift is most visible in the Rio Grande Valley, a border region that helped deliver Trump’s win but is now tilting back toward the party that dominated the area for decades.

The change in mood is evident at La Lomita Catholic Chapel, a Civil War-era building located 200 yards from the Rio Grande. Father Roy Snipes, a priest who has served the parish for nearly 50 years, preached to about 30 worshippers about the actions of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). “There's no good excuse to detain, incarcerate and deport poor, good folks who are our neighbours,” he said. Government data obtained by the Deportation Data Project indicates that Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all ICE arrests nationwide in July 2026, a larger share than any other state.

The region was once a major crossing point, with more than 2.5 million apprehensions recorded in a single year under President Joe Biden. Trump pledged to end those crossings, and current levels are at their lowest in decades. However, local leaders argue the methods of enforcement have outpaced the results. Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, noted that while many accept the deportation of criminals, resistance grows when productive, law-abiding residents are targeted. Mario Guerrero, a Mexican-American businessman who voted for Trump three times, plans to vote Democrat in November. He cited a loss of daily workers at a local business as a sign of the strain. His crew of 35 had shrunk so much that only four to six would show up, he said.

This disconnect is affecting the race for Texas’s 15th congressional district. Republicans redrew the district’s map in 2025 to secure an 18-point majority, yet current polls show a Democratic lead of five or six points. Bobby Pulido, the Democratic candidate and a two-time Latin Grammy winner, has focused his campaign on the local economy rather than national politics. “This isn't New York, this isn't LA,” he said at a local event. Cost of living remains the top concern for voters, with residents like Dave Baldwin and Veronica Salazar blaming the administration for rising prices.

Republican strategists acknowledge the difficulty ahead. Student volunteer Alexis Uscanga described the midterms as “purely a game of turnout.” Tano Tijerina, the Republican candidate in the neighboring 28th district, admitted that “national political headwinds are real.” If current polling holds, a modest swing could reshape the state’s political map. It could be enough to put a US Senate seat in play, a position Democrats have not held in more than 30 years.

The midterm elections are scheduled for 3 November. While border crossings have dropped to historic lows, the political capital Trump gained from that achievement is fading in the very communities that helped elect him. The race now hinges on whether local economic concerns will outweigh national party loyalty in a region that has historically favored one party over the other.