Luxon Leads Hipkins as National Party Support Slides to 29 Percent

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon now holds a four-point lead over his Labour counterpart, with 24 percent of voters ranking him as their preferred prime minister. Chris Hipkins trails at 18 percent. This shift in personal support mirrors a broader decline in the governing party's standing, which has dropped to 29 percent in the latest national survey.

The 1News-Verian poll, conducted between October 15 and October 19, 2026, reveals that National lost three points of support since the previous week. The Labour Party remained steady at 27 percent. This two-point gap between the two major parties is the narrowest it has been in recent tracking. The Green Party fell by one point to 15 percent, while Te Pāti Māori recorded its lowest result in the poll's history at 0.1 percent.

Coalition partners for the National Party saw gains. The Act Party rose one point to 12 percent, and New Zealand First climbed two points to 10 percent. The Opportunity Party dipped slightly to 6 percent. These shifts alter the arithmetic of potential government formation. Based strictly on party vote projections, the right-wing bloc, comprising National, Act, and New Zealand First, would secure 61 seats.

The left-wing bloc, consisting of Labour and the Green Party, would hold 51 seats in total. Labour is projected to win 33 seats, and the Greens 18. The outcome of the election may hinge on the performance of Te Pāti Māori and the Te Tai Tokerau Party. If Te Pāti Māori wins four electorates and the Te Tai Tokerau Party wins one, the left bloc would expand to 56 seats due to an overhang in Parliament.

In that specific scenario, the Opportunity Party, with its projected eight seats, would hold the balance of power. They could choose to join either bloc to form a government. If Te Pāti Māori wins only one seat, the right-wing bloc would have enough seats to govern without the support of the Opportunity Party.

The survey polled 1,003 eligible voters via mobile phone and online panels. The margin of error is approximately 3.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. The data was weighted to match demographic counts from Stats NZ. The results represent a snapshot of current voter sentiment rather than a final prediction of the election outcome.