Florida GOP holds slim early vote lead in final week before Nov. 3

Registered Republicans hold a narrow lead among early voters in Florida, according to data released by the University of Florida Election Lab. The figures cover ballots cast through Tuesday, October 28, with six days remaining until the general election on Tuesday, November 3.

A total of 3,517,675 ballots have been cast in the state so far. This count includes 1,934,427 in-person early votes and 1,583,248 returned mail ballots. Campaigns are using these numbers to identify supporters who have not yet voted so they can target final get-out-the-vote efforts.

Gubernatorial candidates Byron Donalds and David Jolly are framing their closing arguments around these shifting dynamics. Donalds, the Republican candidate, addressed a rally in Tallahassee on Tuesday. He told supporters that the strategy for the remaining week is straightforward. “Our mission over the next seven days is really simple. Just get out and vote,” Donalds said.

Jolly, the Democratic candidate, also campaigned in Tallahassee on the same day. He focused his message on economic pressures facing voters. “The greatest concern right now is your personal economy. Can you afford your house? Where does your family get healthcare? And in a state that abandoned public education, where do you send your kids to school?” Jolly said. He has centered his final push on housing, health care, and education, while Donalds emphasizes voter turnout and continuity of Republican leadership.

In the nine counties covered by the FOX 13 viewing area, 848,122 ballots have been cast. Hillsborough County leads the region with 221,900 ballots. There, registered Democrats who have voted outnumber Republicans by 15,893. Pinellas County recorded 182,704 ballots, with Democrats holding a registration advantage of 2,754.

The partisan balance shifts in other parts of the region. Republicans lead among early voters in Citrus, Hardee, Hernando, Manatee, Pasco, and Sarasota counties. Polk County is nearly evenly split. Of the 94,469 voters who have cast ballots there, 38,318 are registered Republicans and 38,186 are Democrats. The difference between the two groups is 132 votes.

Across all nine counties, registered Republicans account for 349,666 of the cast ballots. Registered Democrats account for 320,432. Another 178,024 voters are registered with a minor party or have no major party affiliation. These figures provide a snapshot of the electorate before Election Day.

The 2026 early voting pace compares to the 2022 midterm election. In 2022, more than 5 million Floridians voted before Election Day. That total included about 2.77 million mail ballots and 2.29 million in-person early votes. The current 2026 total of over 3.5 million is still growing, but it already exceeds the early voting benchmarks set in the last midterm cycle.

Party registration does not determine how a voter casts their ballot. A registered Republican can vote for a Democrat, a registered Democrat can vote for a Republican, and voters without a major-party affiliation can vote for any candidate in the general election. The numbers will continue to change as more Floridians vote early and additional mail ballots are returned.

The data comes from the Florida Division of Elections and county election offices, as compiled by the University of Florida Election Lab. The historical comparison uses the 2022 Florida Division of Elections report.